February 15, 2023: link here.
February 14, 2023: CPI -- so many numbers -- we'll let the market so this out
- before the CPI came, Dow futures up 61 points
- holy mackerel: Dow now up 200 points; now settling in at 160 points up in pre-market
- now, back to flat / slightly negative -- 10 minutes later
- WTI: unchanged; down $1.14; trading at $79.00
- as the CPI was announced: Dow to zero and even went negative
- the Fed only interested in "super-core" -- which excludes food, energy, and shelter
- 6.4% -- CPI
- 5.6% y/y -- core
- 4.6% y/y -- super-core (needs to be fact-checked)
- pretty much came in as expected
- diverging: analysts' interpretation vs investors
- Liesman:
- concentrating on the "full" CPI (which includes food, energy, and shelter) but that's not what the Fed is watching
- wages: up a bit; consumer should be in good shape
- Liesman seems to have it "right" today; happy to see progress, slow as it is
- the "rate hike" story is "dead"
CPI: in a half-hour of discussion on CNBC, this was not mentioned:
For the first time, a new approach is to be applied when generating January CPI data that will be reflected in US inflation figures. Beginning in 2023, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will change the method of calculating inflation data. The release of the January 2023 CPI data on Friday, February 14, 2023, will mark the start of the transition to yearly weights.
February 12, 2023:
- Recession? Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/hard-or-soft-landing-some-economists-see-neither-if-growth-accelerates-854846ea?mod=hp_lead_pos11.
- Cost of salmon: link too TastingTable. My wife and I love salmon; we also love trout. Salmon, even at Costco, has gotten too expensive -- so, we're having trout tonight. Whoo-hoo.
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